Find Real Estate Agents and Homes for Sale

Real Estate News --> Montana News

The Real Estate Bubble Looks Eerily Like Early 2006

We called the real estate bubble top in late 2005, just before it began to burst in early 2006. So did Jim Stack, a newsletter writer in Whitefish Montana. Now Jim has a Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer that’s flashing a sell signal after going up 80% ...

Archived Story

We called the real estate bubble top in late 2005, just before it began to burst in early 2006So did Jim Stack, a newsletter writer in Whitefish Montana. Now Jim has a Housing Bubble Bellwether Barometer that’s flashing a sell signal after going up 80% last yearAll our alarms are going off as well. The Confidence Indicator for the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo is at its highest reading in 18 years… higher than it was in early 2006. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is now higher than the peak in early 2006, and looks like a carbon copy of the last bubble. All of this is to say: things are looking dangerous in the real estate market! Look at this chart… Home Prices As Overvalued As The Early 2006 Top The chart measures home prices versus the CPI (Consumer Price Index)Robert Shiller proved that real estate prices correlate with inflation long termIn fact, Shiller was the only other forecaster (alongside us) who called the housing bubble last time. In 2017, prices went up 7% while inflation went up 1.9%. This index is 34.3% above the CPI, almost exactly like the 35% premium in early 2006! These two bubbles couldn’t be more similar in time frame, overvaluation, and advances if they’d be computer constructed… yet almost no one sees a problem here! When will people ever learn! Mainstream economists and forecasters are bubble-blind again! The best sector of the S&P 500 last year was, of course, homebuilders – up 74.8%. Starter-home companies are doing the best as that’s where the supply is tightest and the demand the strongest. Yet, home builders have been leaning more towards the high end of the market and aging Baby Boomers for higher profits. LGI Homes (NASDAQ:LGIH)is a good example of a company that has nailed the low-end marketsIt was up a whopping 161% in 2017The largest homebuilder, DR Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI), was up 87% (that could be a great short in the next few months). But like I said: alarm bells are sounding. There are two potential “pins” that could trigger a collapse in real estate… The first is mortgage rates rising from around 4% towards 5%. The second is the fact that property taxes are no longer deductibleThat hurts the bubbliest states like California, New York, and New Jersey. My bubble model would suggest that home prices go back to their point of origin, at worst, or, most likely 85% of the wayThat suggests a loss of 42% to 49%! That’s worse than the 34% crash from 2006 into 2012. And my model says it should take as long to deflate as it took to build – or about six years or into around 2023, just like last time. That’s a long way away down! We’re finalizing a special real estate ebook at this very momentIt contains details of the countries and states most at risk in the bubble… and how much each stands to lose when this situation turns badWe’ll be sending details about this as soon as its ready, so watch out for that. sponsoredArticle = 'div-gpt-ad-1466339494851-0'; The Real Estate Bubble Looks Eerily Like Early 2006 1 $(document).ready(function () { $('.js-scrollto-comment').unbind('click').click(function (e) { e.preventDefault(); var href = $(this).attr('href'); if(href !=='#comments'){ window.location = href; return false; } $.scrollTo($('#addAComment').offset().top-135,1000); setTimeout(function (e) { $('#addAComment textarea').focus(); }, 1000); }); });   Comments (1) 1 $(document).ready(function () { $('.js-scrollto-comment').unbind('click').click(function (e) { e.preventDefault(); var href = $(this).attr('href'); if(href !=='#comments'){ window.location = href; return false; } $.scrollTo($('#addAComment').offset().top-135,1000); setTimeout(function (e) { $('#addAComment textarea').focus(); }, 1000); }); }); Related Articles The Real Estate Bubble Looks Eerily Like Early 2006 function openAnalysisImgPopup(imgContainer) { $(imgContainer).append($('#analysisImgPopup')); var imgTitle = ($('img', imgContainer).attr("title") == null || $('img', imgContainer).attr("title") == ' ) ? $('img', imgContainer).attr("alt") : $('img', imgContainer).attr("title"); $(".footerText").html(imgTitle); $("#analysisPopupImg").attr("src", $('img', imgContainer).attr("src")); $("#analysisPopupImg").attr("title", imgTitle); showPopup('analysisImgPopup'); var diffWidth = ($('#analysisImgPopup').width() - $(imgContainer).width()) / 2; var diffHeight = ($('#analysisImgPopup').height() - $(imgContainer).height()) / 2; $('#analysisImgPopup').css({'left': '-' + diffWidth + 'px', 'top': '-' + diffHeight + 'px'}); } Add a Comment Comment Guidelines Comment Guidelines We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each otherHowever, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  Enrich the conversation Stay focused and on trackOnly post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. Be respectfulEven negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.  Use standard writing styleInclude punctuation and upper and lower cases. NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughtsTherefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offendedIf we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse. Only English comments will be allowed. Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at’s discretion I have read's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described. I Agree $('#guidelinesCheckbox'+200282903).on('change', function(){ if ($('#guidelinesCheckbox'+200282903).attr('checked') == 'checked') $('#guidelinesButton'+200282903).removeClass('disabled'); else $('#guidelinesButton'+200282903).addClass('disabled'); }); $('a[id^="guidelinesButton"]').on('click', function(){ if ($(this).hasClass('disabled')) { return false; } });   Are you sure you want to delete this chart? Delete Cancel   Write your thoughts here   Replace the attached chart with a new chart ? Replace Cancel Post Post also to: 1000 Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reportsYour status will be reviewed by our moderators. Please wait a minute before you try to comment again. window.replyToBlockedUserDefine = 'Replying to this discussion is not possible'; $(document).click(function(e){ var currText = $(".js-expanded .js-comment-box").text(); var $cont = $(".js-expanded .commentBoxWrap"); if( $(".js-expanded .commentBoxWrap ").length Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderatorsIt may therefore take some time before it appears on our website. Comments Richie Sassa Jan 24, 2018 11:19PM GMT Share Save SavedSee Saved Items. This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items Block User Share this comment to: The only difference this time is Trump is our president and the previous crooked administration swamp is drainingI'm betting on a ten fold realestate increase over the next 7 yearsEconomy is based on value/debt/dollar/demand which are all aligned and fake news paranoia can not change that Reply 0 0 {username} Just Now Share Save SavedSee Saved Items. This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items Block User Share this comment to: Author's response {commentContent} Reply 0 0 {username} Just Now Author's response Share Save SavedSee Saved Items. This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items Share this comment to: {commentContent} Reply 0 0 Show more comments () Show more replies ()   Are you sure you want to delete this chart? Delete Cancel     Replace the attached chart with a new chart ? Replace Cancel Post 1000 Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reportsYour status will be reviewed by our moderators. Please wait a minute before you try to comment again. window.replyToBlockedUserDefine = 'Replying to this discussion is not possible'; Add Chart to Comment Cancel Attach Confirm Block Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%? By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's's posts. %USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block. Confirm Block Cancel Ok Report this comment I feel that this comment is: Spam Offensive Irrelevant Submit Comment flagged Thank You! Your report has been sent to our moderators for review Close var flashImageDivId = "200282903"; var commentContentId = '200282903'; var commentImagesPath = ''; var socialCommentsApplicationsIds = { VK: 6015101 }; //Bind events (function($, window, document, undefined) { var commentTotalComments = false; var commentPrependText = 'Comments'; var contentId = commentContentId; var FPcommentsObj = new FPcomments(contentId, commentTotalComments, commentImagesPath, commentPrependText); assignCommentEvents(document, contentId, FPcommentsObj); }(jQuery, window, document)); $(document).ready(function() { var commentTextMax = 1000; var elapsedTimeFormatObj = new elapsedTimeFormat('{"minutes":{"X minute ago":[1],"X minutes ago":["2-59"]},"hours":{"X hour ago":[1],"X hours ago":["2-24"]}}','Just Now'); setInterval( function(){ updateCommentsDates(elapsedTimeFormatObj); }, 30000 ); //30 seconds $('#commentBox_'+commentContentId).keyup(function() { calculateLimit('#commentBox_',commentContentId, commentTextMax); }); avoidEmptyCommentSubmitError(commentContentId); setInterval(function () { if($("#pendingMessage"+commentContentId).is(':visible') && !$('.guidelinesBoxWrapper').is(':visible')){ hideOverlay(); } }, 400); }); if ("" == "1"){ $('.guidelinesBoxWrapper').addClass('firstPending'); showOverlay(); $('#comment-guidelines-container'+commentContentId).show(); $('#agreementBox_'+commentContentId).removeClass( "displayNone" ); $('#guidelinesButton'+commentContentId).unbind( "click" ).bind( "click", function(){ if ($('#guidelinesCheckbox'+commentContentId).attr('checked') == 'checked'){ $('#comment-guidelines-container'+commentContentId).hide(); $('#agreementBox_'+commentContentId).addClass( "displayNone" ); $.ajax({ url: "/comments/Service/addFromTemp", type: "get", data: { action : "addFromTemp", content : commentContentId }, success: function(status){ if(status == 'pending'){ $('#pendingMessage'+commentContentId).removeClass('displayNone'); } else { //TODO implement append just added comment debugger; window.location = '#comments'; window.location.reload(); } hideOverlay(); $('.guidelinesBoxWrapper, .guidelinesBoxWrapperAbove').css('margin-left','); } }); } }); } if ("" == "1"){ $('#pendingMessage'+commentContentId).removeClass('displayNone'); } //Top Search ------------------------------------------------------- var searchChart_200282903; searchChart_200282903 = new FXautoComplete; searchChart_200282903.Element.searchTextInputId = 'searchText_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.resultsInnerContainerId = 'searchTopResults_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.resultsOuterContainerId = 'subContainer200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.formElementId = 'combineSearchForm_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.hasTabs = true; searchChart_200282903.Element.tabsContainerId = 'search_tabs_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.tabsType = 'li'; searchChart_200282903.Element.portfolioPairId = 0; searchChart_200282903.Element.searchType = 'portfolio'; searchChart_200282903.Element.tabsDivId = 'searchBoxTabsTopTabs_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.countriesType = 'td'; searchChart_200282903.Element.dynamicVar = '200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.url = '/search/service/search?searchType=advinion'; searchChart_200282903.Element.mainResultRowIdPrefix = 'searchRowIdtop_'; searchChart_200282903.Element.tabsPrefix = 'search_box_top_'+ 200282903; searchChart_200282903.Element.countryRowPrefix = 'tdCountry200282903_'; searchChart_200282903.Element.countriesWrapperId = 'countries_wrapper_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.countriesTableId = 'countries_table_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.countriesDefaultText = 'All Countries'; searchChart_200282903.Element.hiddenNoResultsDefine = 'noResultsDefinesearchTopResults_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.Element.hiddenDocDirectionId = 'doc_directionsearchTopResults_200282903'; searchChart_200282903.setTabsText('[{"id":"search_box_top_200282903All","name":"All","select":true},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Forex","name":"Forex","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Commodities","name":"Commodities","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Indices","name":"Indices","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Stocks","name":"Stocks","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903ETFs","name":"ETFs","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Bonds","name":"Bonds","select":false},{"id":"search_box_top_200282903Countries","name":"All Countries","select":false}]'); searchChart_200282903.inputFieldBind( $('#searchText_200282903') ); searchChart_200282903.getSymbol=function(selectedRowObj){ return $('#' + selectedRowObj.attr('id') + ' .second').html(); } $('#'+ searchChart_200282903.Element.formElementId).submit(function() { if(searchChart_200282903.Element.portfolioPairId != 0 && searchChart_200282903.Element.portfolioPairId != undefined){ searchChart_200282903.selectSymbol($('table[advinionSearch] tr[data-pair_id="' +searchChart_200282903.Element.portfolioPairId+ '"]')); $('#searchText_200282903').val($('#searchText_200282903').attr('default')); } return false; }); searchChart_200282903.selectSymbol=function(selectedRowObj){ var pair_id ='pair_id'); var pair_type ='pair_type'); var futures_categories ='futures_categories'); var candles ='candles'); var decimal ='decimal'); var extraData, strSymbolName, strMarket; strSymbolName = strip(searchChart_200282903.getSymbol(selectedRowObj)); switch(pair_type) { case 'currency': if (futures_categories == 'FX'){ extraData = 'indice'; strMarket = futures_categories; }else{ extraData = 'forex'; strMarket = null; strSymbolName = strip($('#' + selectedRowObj.attr('id') + ' .symbolName').html()); } break; case 'Equities': extraData = 'cfds'; strMarket = 2; break; default: extraData = pair_type; strMarket = futures_categories; } extraData += ',1'; var objChart = investing_GetProChartObject('200282903'); objChart.SetExtraData(extraData); objChart.SetDecimalPlaces(decimal); objChart.SetTimeScaleControls(candles, candles); objChart.ChangeTimeFrame("5M"); objChart.ChangeSymbolNoPush(strMarket, pair_id, strSymbolName); $('#chart_title_200282903').html(strSymbolName); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('extraData', extraData); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('strMarket', strMarket); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('decimal', decimal); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('candles', candles); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('pair_id', pair_id); $('#chart_title_200282903').data('strSymbolName', strSymbolName); searchChart_200282903.closeSearchResultBox(); } searchChart_200282903.bindResults=function(rowElement){ var obj = this; $(rowElement) .mousemove(function(){ obj.actionMouseMoveOnRow(rowElement,obj,searchChart_200282903); }) .click(function(){ searchChart_200282903.selectSymbol($(rowElement)); }); } searchChart_200282903.buildSearchResults=function(data){ var obj = this; var resultsHtml = '; var current_tab = obj.previousTab;,current_tab); obj.firstRowId = 0; var symbol = ', tr_data = '; var counter = 0; if(data['All'][0] !== 'No results matched your search'){ $.each(data['All'], function(index,item){ if(item !== undefined && (item['tab_ID'].toLowerCase() == current_tab.toLowerCase() || current_tab == 'All')) { symbol = searchChart_200282903.boldSymbol(obj.searchText , item['symbol']); tr_data = ' data-pair_type="' +item['advinion']['pair_type']+ '" data-futures_categories="' +item['advinion']['futures_categories']+ '" data-candles="' +item['advinion']['str_candles']+ '" data-decimal="' +item['advinion']['pair_decimal_last']+ '" '; //check for exact match if((obj.searchText).toLowerCase() === (item['symbol']).toLowerCase() && counter == 0) resultsHtml += ''; else if(counter == 0) resultsHtml += ''; else resultsHtml += ''; counter++; resultsHtml += '+symbol+'+item['name']+'; resultsHtml += '+item['pair_type_label']+'; if(item['pair_type']=='Equities' || item['pair_type']=='indice' || item['pair_type']=='etf' || (item['exchange_name_short'])) { resultsHtml += ' - '+item['exchange_name_short']; } resultsHtml += '; } }); } if(counter == 0){ resultsHtml = 'No results matched your search'; obj.arrowfocus = "tabs"; obj.firstRowId = 'no_results'; $('#'+obj.Element.resultsInnerContainerId).html(resultsHtml); return; } resultsHtml += '; $('#'+obj.Element.resultsInnerContainerId).html(resultsHtml); } Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data. Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this websitePlease be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible var tooltipContainer = '; function changeFindABrokerTabContent(childObj) { $(childObj).unbind('click'); $(childObj).addClass('selected').siblings().each(function(){ if($(this).is('.selected')) { $(this).bind('click',function() { changeFindABrokerTabContent(this); } ); } $(this).removeClass('selected'); }); var clickedtab = $(childObj).attr('tab'); $('#findABroker_html').html("").addClass('loading-responsive'); $.get('/ads/FABAjax', {activetab: clickedtab} , function(data) { $('#findABroker_html').removeClass('loading-responsive').html(data); } ); } Find A Broker $(function() { // Initialize chart block var chart = Object.create(FP.Modules.js_sideblock_chart()); // Set containers chart.set_wrapper('quotesBoxChartWrp'); chart.set_chart_container('quotesBoxChart'); chart.set_loading_container('quotesBoxChartLoading'); chart.nav(); // Trigger chart's rendering $('#quotesBoxChart').trigger('chartTabChanged'); }); Indices Commodities Forex Crypto More Categories $(document).ready(function(){ tabsWidgetOnelevel(', 'storedSiteBlockQuotesBoxTabObject', 'quotesBoxWithTabsTop'); setTimeout(function(){ $(".noOverflow").removeClass("noOverflow"); },500); }); Tabs SelectionStocksETFsBonds%COUNT%/4 selected Apply1D1W1M6M1Y5YMax 2,665.75-28.50-1.06%  6,570.75-83.00-1.25%  24,912.77+567.02+2.33%  1,506.87+14.30+0.96%  29.980.000.00%  12,392.66-294.83-2.32%  89.48-0.04-0.04%  7,390-430-5.50%  1,332.20+2.70+0.20%  16.690+0.110+0.66%  3.197-0.018-0.56%  63.78+0.39+0.62%  67.36+0.50+0.75%  2.757-0.007-0.25%  76.64+0.33+0.43%  122.97+3.14+2.62%  1.2382+0.0006+0.05%  1.39500.00000.00%  109.16-0.39-0.36%  1.2517+0.0025+0.20%  152.29-0.49-0.32%  0.7866-0.0039-0.49%  0.8875+0.0003+0.03%  135.16-0.42-0.31%  7,269.2+893.5+14.01%  729.72+138.58+23.44%  894.98+79.58+9.76%  1.56170+0.27110+21.01%  136.22+20.71+17.93%  0.71500+0.07436+11.61%  5,909.2+756.9+14.69%  504.19+82.51+19.57%  Most Popular Articles Analysis News $(function() { tabsWidgetBindJSFunc('mostPopularTabsTop', 'mostPopularChangeTab', false ); }); Bitcoin rebounds from three-month low in volatile trade By Reuters - Feb 06, 2018 1 Top 5 Things to Know in the Market on Tuesday By - Feb 06, 2018 4 Stocks- Wall Street Set To Tumble as Sell-Off Continues By - Feb 06, 2018 Wall Street drops in volatile trade after steep falls By Reuters - Feb 06, 2018 2 Asian shares on edge, trim gains as U.Sfutures slip By Reuters - Feb 07, 2018 More News  Beyond Bitcoin: 5 Promising Cryptocurrencies All Under $100 By Jesse Cohen/ - Feb 06, 2018 25 Rare Dollar Correlations Signal More Market Turbulence Ahead By - Feb 06, 2018 2 Opening Bell: Stocks Plunge, Oil Drops, Bitcoin Keeps Sinking By Pinchas Cohen/ - Feb 06, 2018 2 Big Reasons To Buy Apple Now, While Others Are Still Selling By Haris Anwar/ - Feb 05, 2018 5 Week Ahead: Stock, Bond Bubbles Forming? How Low Will Bitcoin Go? By Pinchas Cohen/ - Feb 04, 2018 1 More Analysis  function mostPopularChangeTab( tab ){ $(".mostPopularsContainer").toggleClass('altSide'); }   Central Banks Interest Rates Next Meeting     Mar 21, 2018   Mar 08, 2018   Feb 08, 2018   Mar 22, 2018   Feb 06, 2018   Mar 07, 2018   Feb 08, 2018   Mar 08, 2018   Feb 09, 2018   Feb 07, 2018      Feb 07, 2018  $(window).bind("load", function() { scrollng_ad('scrollingRightBox', 'footerWrapper'); }); What's New Mobile Portfolio Webmaster Tools About Us Advertise Affiliate Program Help & Support

Trending Montana News:

  • Some evacuation orders lifted on western Montana fire
  • Montana Supreme Court upholds reappraisal system
  • Evacuations ordered for the Sunrise Fire in Western Montana
  • Montana’s Yellowstone Club Debuts Luxurious New Clubhouse
  • Power still out for hundreds along Montana Hi-Line
  • Montana's trolleys: The beginning and end
  • Montana Legislature kicks off 2017 session
  • Montana flooding update, video of water rescue on the Hi-Line
  • Montana officer who punched motorists loses certification
  • VA: Vets won't be left homeless if Montana facility closes
  • Montana wildfires update for…
  • National women’s clothing store moving in to Missoula
  • Lawmakers introduce major bills to address Colstrip impacts
  • With 49ers and Joe Montana backing, Santa Clara weighs Santana Row-like plan across from stadium
  • Montana Lawmakers Denounce Plans For Armed Anti-Semitic Rally
  • Montana's recreational, ag land sales trend up in 2014
  • Sen. Llew Jones explains necessity for supporting higher education options for students in Montana
  • Gianforte enters race for Zinke U.S. House seat
  • Williams' rejection as regent pleases some, rankles others
  • School owes bank $1.5 million in loans - Fri, 23 Nov 2012 PST