Find Real Estate Agents and Homes for Sale


Real Estate News --> Oregon News

Oregon's probability of recession: 40 percent or more, economists say


Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who called the last recession, went further Monday, saying the state faces better than even odds of another one.


Archived Story

Register now for free, or sign in with any of these services: You are signed in as Edit Public Profile Sign Out Favorite Schoolsexpand Favorite Teamsclose Subscribe The Oregonian Hillsboro Argus Email newsletters Mobile apps function getComscorekwValue() { var Business = 'Business'; comscorekw=Business; return Business; } function getToprailMenuContext() { return '6247'; } comments Oregon's probability of recession: 40 percent or more, economists say Print Richard Read | rread@oregonian.com By Richard Read | rread@oregonian.com The Oregonian Email the author | Follow on Twitter on October 03, 2011 at 7:53 PM, updated October 04, 2011 at 5:51 AM View/Post Comments if ( typeof image === 'undefined' ) var image = { "src": "" }; Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarTop = function() { Advance.Gigya.fn.buildGigyaShareBar({ 'div':'social_top', 'shareButtons':'twitter-tweet,facebook-like,googleplus-share,pinterest-pinit,reddit,email', 'layout':'vertical', 'showCounts':'top', 'title':'Oregon\'s probability of recession: 40 percent or more, economists say', 'link':'http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2011/10/oregons_probability_of_recessi.html', 'desc': 'Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who called the last recession, went further Monday, saying the state faces better than even odds of another one', 'thumbnail': image.src }); }; Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarMobile = function() { Advance.Gigya.fn.buildGigyaShareBar({ 'div':'social_mobile', 'shareButtons':'twitter-tweet,facebook-like,googleplus-share,pinterest-pinit,reddit,email', 'layout':'horizontal', 'showCounts':'right', 'title':'Oregon\'s probability of recession: 40 percent or more, economists say', 'link':'http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2011/10/oregons_probability_of_recessi.html', 'desc': 'Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who called the last recession, went further Monday, saying the state faces better than even odds of another one', 'thumbnail': image.src }); }; Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarBottom = function() { Advance.Gigya.fn.buildGigyaShareBar({ 'div':'social_bottom', 'shareButtons':'twitter-tweet,facebook-like,googleplus-share,pinterest-pinit,reddit,email', 'layout':'horizontal', 'showCounts':'right', 'title':'Oregon\'s probability of recession: 40 percent or more, economists say', 'link':'http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2011/10/oregons_probability_of_recessi.html', 'desc': 'Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who called the last recession, went further Monday, saying the state faces better than even odds of another one', 'thumbnail': image.src }); }; if ( typeof Advance.Gigya !== 'undefined' && typeof gigya !== 'undefined' ) { if (document.documentElement.clientWidth > 1024) { Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarTop(); Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarBottom(); } if ((document.documentElement.clientWidth 600)) { Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarMobile(); Advance.Gigya.fn.initMTGigyaShareBarBottom(); } } Steven Nehl/The OregonianA construction crew builds a school in Happy Valley in 2008Oregon economists are raising new worries about Oregon jobs,  and state and local revenues, given a range of falling indicatorsOregon and the nation face at least a 40 percent chance of recession, local economists say, as financial markets stall and the state economy sputters.   Tim Duy, a University of Oregon economist who called the last recession, went further Monday, saying the state faces better than even odds of another oneDuy spoke after his monthly report on state and national economic indicators showed a fifth straight month of decline   In Oregon, a downturn would hit an economy still reeling from the last national recession, which ended officially in June 2009Statewide unemployment, only recently out of double digits, could be expected to rise againDeclining tax revenues would force yet more state and local budget cuts, scenarios that GovJohn Kitzhaber and the Legislature are already examining   "The probability of recession has really gone up dramatically," Duy said"The rapidity with which things have deteriorated is kind of distressing."   The only saving grace could be that Oregon, having fallen so far since the real estate and financial bubbles, couldn't crash as hard as in the recent recession   "You can't lay off the RV industry in Eugene anymore," said Duy, in a dark reference to wholesale job losses from the recreational vehicle industry in his area   The Oregon economists spoke Monday as stocks plunged, with the Dow Jones industrial average falling 258.08, or 2.4 percentThe euro slid against the dollar amid renewed concerns about Europe's debt problems Investors braced for Friday's U.Sjobs report, concerned that unemployment may have risen in September from 9.1 percent   Nationally as well, economists were discussing a potential recession, a widespread downturn occurring when the U.Sgross domestic product contracts for two successive quarters   In August, Oregon's unemployment was a half-point higher than the national rate at 9.6 percent, seasonally adjustedLarge swaths of the state remain in double digitsOne in five Oregonians is on food stamps.   There are positive signs, too, howeverOregon's initial unemployment claims fell in AugustHiring by temp agencies increased, while manufacturing orders grew nationally   But other components followed by Duy's UO Index of Economic Indicators were negativeOregon residential building permits fell in August, as did trucking activity, the index showedNational consumer confidence declinedThe interest rate spread also fell   In all, the UO Index fell 1.3 percent in August to 89, for a total 4.4 percent decline in six months"In the past," Duy wrote in his report, "sustained declines of this magnitude foreshadowed labor market recessions in Oregon."   Recessions are not designated at the state levelBut Duy noted that Oregon tends to be more sensitive to economic cycles than the nation as a whole, with job losses and gains typically greater   Nationally, Duy is spooked by financial markets, with commodities down, bonds up and the dollar rising"It's just pointing to an enormous amount of financial distress," he said   Mark McMullen, state government's acting chief economist, noted that a similar index maintained by his office has also declined"Both these indexes are at about the level they ended 2010 at," McMullen said.   McMullen pegs the probability of recession for Oregon at 40 percentSo does Portland economist John MitchellTom Potiowsky, state government's former chief economist who heads Portland State University's economics department, sees a 40 percent to 45 percent probability   McMullen still expects the state's unemployment rate to improve slowly during the next couple of years, noting that Oregon has been adding jobs   "That said, if we do have a recession, it'll be a significant one," he said"Over the next year, we would lose the 30,000 jobs that Oregon's gained since the bottomThat would lead to significant revenue losses" for state government   Mitchell views the economy as precarious"Any kind of a shock that causes people to change spending patterns could turn it into a recession," he said    Potiowsky said Oregon workers would take the brunt of a recession   "You'd start to see our unemployment rate go up, and you'd definitely see more layoffs," Potiowsky said"But we don't have any sector that's at some lofty perch to fall from."   Potiowsky sees a path to avoid recession, if Europe averts crisis and if Congress moves beyond ideological banter to address the economy President Barack Obama's stimulus plan could help, he saidBusiness confidence could improve, he said, given greater certainty on federal policies   But, Potiowsky said, "There's just no magic out there that's going to get this economy moving really fast." -- Richard Read  Twitter: @ReadOregonian  View/Post Comments Related Stories if (pb_page_template == undefined) { var pb_page_template = 'article'; } if (pb_page_template != "index") { document.write('); } Most Read var most_read_day_range = parseInt(1); var most_read_story_count = parseInt(5) var most_read_add_query = "tag/@business/detail"; Portland's Skyline Comparing the city's tallest towers (infographics & slideshow) A guide to downtown Portland skyscrapers with details on everything from height to number of floors, square footage, when each was built, contractors and more View all upcoming events » More in Business Business Watch: Post your own news Update on all major financial-market indexes Oregon business resources function setCustomOptout() { if (document.getElementById('newsletter-optout').checked) { document.getElementById('optout_value').value = "NO"; $('#newsletter-realdeal').val(""); } else { document.getElementById('optout_value').value = "YES"; $('#newsletter-realdeal').val(newsletter_realdeal_slidval); } } function verifyform(f) { setCustomOptout(); var l = f.elements.length ,output = "Oops your request could not be completed because some of the information you entered is not validYou should follow the instructions below and then try again \n\n" ,i=0 ,nl_checked = false ,good_zip = true ,good_email = false ,optin_good = false ; for (i=0; i-1) { if (e.value.length > 4) { var z = "" ,zz = "" ,x = 0 ; for(x=0;x-1) good_email = emailCheck(e.value); } if (good_zip==false){ $("#newsletter-zip").css({'box-shadow':'0 0 8px red'}); output += "- Please enter a valid Zip Code\n"; } if (good_email==false){ $("#newsletter-email").css({'box-shadow':'0 0 8px red'}); output += "- Please enter a valid Email Address\n"; } if ((good_zip==false) || (good_email==false)) { alert(output); return false; } $(".newsletter-form").hide(); $('#newsletter-thanks').show(); return true; } function emailCheck (emailStr) { var checkTLD=1 ,emailPat=/^(.+)@(.+)$/ ,specialChars="\\(\\)>127) return false; } for (i=0; i127) return false; } if (user.match(userPat)==null) return false; var atomPat=new RegExp("^" + atom + "$") ,domArr=domain.split(".") ,len=domArr.length ; for (i=0;i1) return false; var string="1234567890"; if (string.indexOf(num)!=-1){return true;} return false; } Today's Business Update The top business headlines of the day delivered to your inbox.   optional Check here if you do not want to receive additional email offers and information. See our privacy policy Thank you for subscribing! To view and subscribe to any of our other newsletters, please click here. setCustomOptout(); Business news videos /* = 600) { var js = document.createElement('script'); js.type = 'text/javascript'; js.src = 'http://launch.newsinc.com/js/embed.js'; $('#ndn_launcher_23802').append(js); } /* ]]> */ if (pb_page_template == "index") { document.write('); } else { document.write('); } Best of OregonLive.com 'SNL 40th Anniversary Special' review (photos) Cuddle Con debuts in Portland (photos) Monster Truck Speed Dating for Valentine's Day (... /* */ resimg.sizecheck(); resimg.resimf(); About Us About OregonLive.com About Oregonian Media Group Advertise with us Contact Us Jobs at Oregonian Media Group FAQ Our Journalists Subscribe Today The Oregonian Hillsboro Argus Email Newsletters Text Alerts RSS Already a Subscriber Manage your Subscription Delivery feedback Place a vacation hold Make a payment OregonLive.com Sections News Business Sports High School Sports Entertainment Living Travel Opinion Obituaries Jobs Autos Real Estate Rentals Classifieds Local Deals Local Businesses Your Regional News Pages Clackamas County Clark County Gresham Portland Washington County More Local News Mobile iPhone, Android apps | Tablet Apps More on OregonLive.com Forums Videos Photos Interact with us Weather Post a job Post a classified ad Sell your car Sell/rent your home Sitemap & search Follow Us Twitter | Facebook | Google+ | Pinterest | Instagram | Tumblr Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy

Trending Oregon News:


  • Police kill S. Ore. gunman who wounded agent
  • Industry Notes: Oregon Translational Research Development Bioscience Incubator expansion and other real estate ...
  • Oregon Wildfire Strands 150 Hikers as Father Recounts His Family’s Harrowing Escape: ‘Our Only Path Was on Fire’
  • Terry Bean's Attorney Posts a Defense Regarding Extortion Claims On His Facebook Page
  • Oregon 2nd most popular destination for people changing states
  • On the market: Oregon's most expensive homes (photos)
  • BC Group, the Best Real Estate Project Management Company in Portland, Oregon
  • Clarion Completes $155M Disposition of Waterside Shops
  • Denver, Portland and Seattle Are the Hottest Markets of 2016, According to Redfin
  • Portland, OR: Real Estate Market & Trends 2016
  • BYU report card: Nelson, Hoffman fuel Cougar offense
  • 'Yes on 79' campaign inaccurately suggests real estate tax is real: PolitiFact Oregon
  • Argus Observer: Study Indicates Ontario Is Oregon's Least Safe City
  • Oregon’s Most Expensive Home Comes With a Controversial Past
  • Re/Max : Broker buys Oregon real estate office
  • Oregon Business Association grumbles about tax measures on November ballot
  • Optimism on the Rise in Bend & Sunriver Markets
  • 'There is no way to be safe': Oregon city fears immigration raids after 11 detained
  • OMSI nears goal for 20-acre coastal camp; Portland International Airport honors Walt Froman; Oregon Humane Society ...
  • Oversights in estate tax will hurt Oregon agriculture